Marketing Attribution: Why Your Leads Aren’t Coming From Where You Think
Here’s a scenario I see constantly: A business owner looks at their Google Ads report and sees 30 conversions. They look at their Facebook Ads report and see 25 conversions. They check Google Analytics and see 40 total conversions.
Wait — 30 + 25 = 55, but Google Analytics says 40. Where did the other 15 go?
The answer is attribution — and it’s one of the most misunderstood concepts in marketing. Understanding it won’t just make your reports more accurate; it’ll fundamentally change how you allocate your marketing budget.
What Is Attribution?
Attribution is the process of determining which marketing touchpoint gets “credit” for a conversion. When a customer buys from you or submits an enquiry, which marketing activity caused it?
Sounds simple. It’s not.
Here’s a realistic customer journey:
- Monday: Sarah sees your Facebook ad while scrolling. She doesn’t click.
- Wednesday: She Googles “best marketing consultant Southampton” and clicks your organic listing. She reads a blog post and leaves.
- Friday: She sees a retargeting ad on Facebook. She clicks and browses your services page. She leaves.
- Next Monday: She gets your email newsletter (she subscribed after the blog visit). She clicks through.
- Next Wednesday: She Googles your company name and clicks a Google Ad. She submits an enquiry form.
Which channel “caused” the conversion?
- Facebook says: We showed her the ad! (Twice!)
- Google Ads says: She clicked our ad and converted!
- Google Analytics says: Last click was Google Ads
- Email says: She clicked our newsletter link!
- SEO says: She first found us through organic search
They’re all right. They’re all wrong. This is the attribution problem.
Why Every Platform Over-Reports
Here’s the dirty secret of digital marketing: every advertising platform takes credit for as much as it can.
Google Ads
Default attribution: Data-driven, but historically last-click. If someone clicked a Google Ad at any point in their journey and later converted, Google Ads will likely claim that conversion.
Facebook/Meta Ads
Default attribution: 7-day click, 1-day view. If someone saw your Facebook ad (didn’t even click) and converted within 24 hours, Facebook claims credit. If they clicked and converted within 7 days, Facebook claims credit.
That “1-day view” window is particularly generous. If someone scrolled past your ad for half a second and then Googled you later that day, Facebook counts the conversion.
Google Analytics
Default attribution: Data-driven in GA4, which uses machine learning to distribute credit. But many businesses still look at “last non-direct click” reports, which credit whichever channel was the last one before the conversion.
The Result
Every platform over-reports because each has a different attribution window and methodology. Add up conversions from all your platform reports and you’ll get a number significantly higher than your actual conversions. This is why platform reporting ≠ reality.
Attribution Models Explained (Simply)
Last-Click Attribution
100% credit goes to the final touchpoint before conversion.
In Sarah’s example: Google Ads gets all the credit.
Pros: Simple, easy to track Cons: Completely ignores everything that influenced the customer before that final click. Massively undervalues awareness channels (social, display, content).
First-Click Attribution
100% credit goes to the first touchpoint.
In Sarah’s example: The original Facebook ad impression gets all the credit.
Pros: Values awareness and discovery channels Cons: Ignores everything that happened after discovery. A channel could introduce thousands of people who never convert, and it’d look amazing.
Linear Attribution
Equal credit to every touchpoint.
In Sarah’s example: Facebook Ad (20%), Organic Search (20%), Facebook Retargeting (20%), Email (20%), Google Ad (20%).
Pros: Acknowledges every touchpoint Cons: Treats a casual scroll past a Facebook ad the same as a high-intent Google search. That’s not realistic.
Time-Decay Attribution
More credit to touchpoints closer to the conversion.
In Sarah’s example: Google Ad (35%), Email (25%), Facebook Retargeting (20%), Organic Search (15%), Facebook Ad (5%).
Pros: Recognises that recent touchpoints typically have more influence Cons: Still undervalues the initial awareness that started the journey
Data-Driven Attribution (GA4 Default)
Uses machine learning to distribute credit based on actual conversion patterns in your data.
Pros: The most accurate for businesses with enough data Cons: Requires significant conversion volume (minimum ~300 conversions/month) to work well. For most SMEs, the dataset is too small for this to be reliable.
What This Means for Your Budget
Attribution isn’t an academic exercise — it directly affects how you spend your money.
If you rely on last-click attribution:
- You’ll overinvest in bottom-of-funnel channels (Google Ads brand campaigns, direct)
- You’ll underinvest in top-of-funnel channels (social media, content, display)
- Over time, your pipeline will shrink because you’re not feeding the top of the funnel
If you rely on platform reporting:
- You’ll think every channel is performing better than it is
- You’ll overspend overall because you can’t see the overlap
- You’ll make contradictory decisions based on contradictory data
The right approach for most SMEs:
- Use Google Analytics 4 as your source of truth (one measurement system, one set of numbers)
- Supplement with platform data for optimisation within each channel
- Accept that attribution will never be perfect — directional accuracy is good enough
Practical Attribution for Small Businesses
Enterprise companies spend millions on multi-touch attribution software. You don’t need that. Here’s what works for SMEs:
1. Ask Customers How They Found You
Add “How did you hear about us?” to your contact forms. Include options for all your marketing channels plus “word of mouth” and “other.”
This is shockingly effective. Customers will tell you what made the biggest impression on them — which is often different from what the tracking data says.
2. Use Google Analytics as Your Single Source
Stop trying to reconcile Google Ads numbers with Facebook numbers with GA4 numbers. Pick one platform for your overall reporting and stick with it. GA4 is the best choice because it measures all channels equally.
Platform-specific reporting is useful for optimising within that platform, but for business-level reporting, use one source of truth.
3. Track Assisted Conversions
In GA4, look at the “Model comparison” report (under Advertising). This shows you which channels assist conversions (are part of the journey) vs. which channels close conversions (are the last touchpoint).
You might discover that Facebook rarely closes a conversion but is involved in 40% of conversion paths. That would completely change how you evaluate your Facebook spend.
4. Run Incrementality Tests
Want to know if a channel actually drives business? Turn it off for a month and see what happens.
- Pause Facebook Ads for 4 weeks. Did total conversions drop? By how much?
- Stop email marketing for a month. What changed?
This is crude but effective. If pausing a channel has no measurable impact on total conversions, it wasn’t contributing as much as the platform reported.
Caveat: Only test one channel at a time, and give it a full 4 weeks. Short tests or multiple simultaneous tests produce unreliable results.
5. Focus on Blended Metrics
Instead of obsessing over per-channel attribution, track your blended cost per lead and blended ROAS.
Total marketing spend ÷ Total conversions = Blended cost per lead
If your blended cost per lead is acceptable and trending in the right direction, your marketing mix is working — even if you can’t precisely attribute every conversion to a specific channel.
Common Attribution Pitfalls
”Google Ads Is Our Best Channel” (Maybe Not)
If most of your Google Ads conversions come from branded search terms (people Googling your company name), Google Ads is capturing demand that other channels created. Without the Facebook ads, content, and email that built awareness, those people wouldn’t be searching for your brand.
”Social Media Doesn’t Generate Any Leads” (Maybe It Does)
Social media rarely gets last-click credit because it operates at the top of the funnel. But look at assisted conversions — you might find social is involved in a large percentage of conversion paths.
”We Should Only Spend on What We Can Measure” (Careful)
Some of the most valuable marketing activities (brand building, content, community) are the hardest to attribute directly. If you only invest in directly measurable channels, you’ll slowly starve the pipeline of new awareness.
Want to Understand Where Your Leads Really Come From?
At Black Sheep Marketing, we help businesses set up proper tracking, configure attribution models, and build reporting systems that show the real picture — not the one each platform wants you to see.
If your marketing data tells conflicting stories, we’ll help you find the truth.
Book a Free Analytics Review →
